2007 Purchasing Predictions...Yawn...
This is the time of year when bloggers from every walk of life take to the blogosphere to share their predictions for the coming 12 months.
Well, try as I might, I wasn't able to escape the temptation of being cliche and making some predictions for the year in purchasing and supply management. My buddy, Michael Lamoureux, over at the Sourcing Innovation Blog gave me just enough prodding to contribute.
I'll keep it short, but here goes...
1. "China, India, and ____." When people in the field talk about low-cost country sourcing, they usually mention China and India. Well, I predict that, by this time next year, the twosome will be an inseparable threesome. What country completes that trinity is fascinating fodder for speculation. Will it be emerging hotspots like the Phillipines or Vietnam or a place not even on the radar screen? My guess...Mexico.
2. "You're Fired." The hot-off-the-press 2007 Purchasing & Supply Management Career & Skills Report indicates that cost pressures are growing in the lives of purchasing leaders. I think that these presssures will catch up in a newsworthy way with at least one major purchasing exec and s/he will find him or herself with a pink slip in hand by the end of the year.
3. "Extra, Extra, Read All About It." A major supply disruption - caused by a Force Majeure event - will make major headlines and managing supply risk will become something that every purchasing professional talks vigorously about for a few weeks until a new reality show, sporting event, or political happening steals the conversational thunder.
To Your Career,
Charles Dominick, SPSM
President
Next Level Purchasing, Inc.
Struggling To Have A Rewarding Purchasing Career?
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http://www.NextLevelPurchasing.com
posted by Charles Dominick, SPSM @ 2:08 PM
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5 Comments:
Charles:
Great (and terrifying) predictions. The probability of these coming true is quite high.
However, I would put my money on either Eastern Europe or Africa becoming the final member of the low-cost supply triumverate. Global trade figures signify that these regions are becoming increasingly popular supply hotspots. And historical trends indicate that low-cost regions begin as areas rich with raw materials -- such as oil or metals -- and basic labor skills -- before booming into manufacturing powerhouses.
Stay tuned.
Tim
Interesting thoughts, Tim. Thanks for sharing them.
I'm more likely to agree with your Eastern Europe prediction rather than Africa, despite Africa indeed being a good source of oil and mined materials.
There just is so much strife throughout Africa, from the recent Ethiopia/Somalia warfare to the genocide in Darfur to the identity theft that is centralized in Ghana and Nigeria to the lack of government control that allows all of these situations to exist. I would be very hesitant to move any additional business to the African continent in 2007. But that's just me!
Thailand with its low labor and overhead cost,FTAs in and around Asia Pacific countries seems to be a strong contender.It definitely involves a shift in typical Buyer's Mindset...rather than just tapping a low cost source efforts should be to develop the supplier to global standards by knowledge/technology sharing.It will definitely be beneficial in the long run.
There are definitely a lot of goods coming out of Thailand. However, I'd be concerned about the size of the country constraining capacity.
Thailand is much smaller of a country than China, India, and Mexico and, therefore, I feel it limits its potential for growth.
Oops...I pushed the submit button too soon.
Thank you for your comment, Pallavi!
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